It Wasn’t the Economy, Stupid!
Read toward the middle for the REAL reason Trump won the 2024 election.
Pundits and pollsters are all pointing to the economy as the #1 factor that steered voters toward Trump.
This is a collossally embarrassing conclusion.
How Bad Was the Economy?
When your friend tells you that she voted for Donald Trump because she was concerned about the economy, ask her what aspects of the economy concerned her.
- The DOW reached all-time highs under Biden.
- The last GDP report before the election smashed expectations.
- Wages increased under Biden.
- Job numbers increase every month for years under Biden.
- Unemployment dropped way below the target 5% mark (it was 4.1%).
- Inflation was nearing the Fed’s 2% target.
- Interest rates were falling.
- The last consumer confident reading increased by double digits.
- Americans consumers continued to spend like drunken sailors on discretionary purchases, boosting GDP, but also lifting inflation. (Expensive professional sports events, superhero movies, Taco Bell and Olive Garden delivered to homes, brand name clothes, billions spent on Amazon, etc.)
The Fake Numbers
But grocery prices are higher! That is neither Trump’s nor Biden’s fault. If grocery stores had only raised their costs to cover inflation, their profits would not have increase during or after the pandemic. In fact, America’s grocery chains were posting RECORD PROFITS, which means they were artificially raising prices (beyond their cost increases) and keeping them there.
What about Housing?
Again, the housing market problems were not the fault of Trump or Biden. It’s a simple case of lack of supply. For the first time, Millennials decided to move out of apartments and their parents basements and flooded the market with new buyers. At the same time, more Baby Boomers decided to age in place and would not sell their houses (existing inventory).
Builders could not build for a variety of reasons, such as supply chain issues, lumber shortage and lack or workers (many Mexican construction workers went back to Mexico or went into other professions during the Great Recession housing bust)?
So How Did Trump Win?
Now that we know that the economy was NOT an important issue to Trump voters, it’s easy to know what was important. Independent studies after the 2016 election confirmed that the main factor in Trump’s victory was race.
Bigotry (racism, homophobia, anti-semitism, classism, misogyny, etc.) was the driving factor in Trump’s 2024 victory.
Trump said he would start mass deportations of illegal immigrants – and Latinos still voted for him.
Trump said he would cut Obamacare and other entitlements while making it more difficult for Blacks to vote – and Blacks still voted for him.
Trump overturned Roe v. Wade and was on the record saying, “There must be some form of punishment,” for women who got an abortion – and women still voted for a convicted rapist whose party wanted to make taking birth control a criminal offense.
Trump said he would give Netanyahu all the bombs he needed to obliterate Gaza – and Michigan’s Arabs wouldn’t vote for Harris because she and Biden supported Israel.
The Bottom Line
Voters who said they voted for Trump because of the economy can’t explain all of the bullet-point list items above, or tell you what part of the economy concerned them (other than grocery prices).
So, what really motivated them? Bigotry. Blacks not liking Mexicans. Latino men wanting women in their places. “Christians” hating gays and transgenders. Arabs hating Jews. They all found one group they could count on Trump to “get” for them.
Remember – every KKK member in the United States voted for Trump. Every Nazi Party member in the U.S. voted for Trump.
Ask yourself why.